Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Keiser Report: 2014 Year of Bubbles

From RT

Published on Dec 30, 2014

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert are joined by Mitch Feierstein of PlanetPonzi.com for a look back on 2014 and forward to 2015. They talk oil, ruble, yen, restoring diplomatic relations with Cuba, the possible implosion of the Japanese bond market and about falling wages and falling Baltic Dry Index as globalization declines.

Gold was the second best performing currency of 2014

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Monday, December 29, 2014

James Corbett - The Net Is Mightier Than The Sword

From corbettreport

Published on Dec 25, 2014

Since the rise of the internet people have changed from mere audiences into authors and editors. With pieces of technology small enough to fit the whole world into your pocket, a revolution might be on its way. The net is now mightier than the sword. This presentation was delivered at the TEDxGroningen conference in the Netherlands on November 20, 2014.

Keiser Report: De-Fiatisation of the World

From RT

Published on Dec 27, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the ‘Give Us Back Our Gold’ movement across Europe as governments seek to have their gold held domestically as fear spreads about the integrity of our fiat and debt world. Max describes the de-fiatisation of the world as the American empire makes way for the emerging power of China.

In the second half Max interviews Sandeep Jaitly (@Bullionbasis) of FeketeResearch.com about negative GOFO rates, earning free fiat with your gold and taking us back to the Dark Ages with Quantitative Easing.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Weekend Chillout - Too Much

At a time of year of Too Much - food, shopping and possibly family I thought we all could do with a chillout remix from the multi-talented Jessie Andrews.


Jessie mixing it in Canada

SD Metals and Markets - Blood is Flowing in the Streets

From SilverDoctors

Friday, December 26, 2014

What Economic Slowdown?

No signs of an economic slowdown in Sydney today with Boxing Day sales in full swing. Major department and brand name stores were packed. Even at the high end there were queues 50 to 100 deep for entry into LV, Gucci and Burberry.

Pitt St Mall, Sydney, Australia

Keiser Report: Tail Chasing Media

From RT

Published on Dec 23, 2014

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss power. In the domestic political arena, Russell Brand’s campaign with the New Era Estate women proves that the people do have the power - if they want it. And in the energy market, it seems supply and demand actually has the power - not the cartels, not the conspiracies.

In the second half, Max interviews former energy market regulator Chris Cook about the possible causes of the oil price collapse and what the future holds for price and projects.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Eric Sprott on Ukraine Russia War: Capital Controls, Bank Runs, Gold and Silver Forecast

From Greg Hunter

Boom Bust - Jim Grant on the Forgotten Depression of 1921: The Crash That Cured Itself

From Boom Bust

Merry Christmas

Merry Christmas to all my blog followers, hoping you all have a safe and happy holiday and an amazingly successful 2015.

Martin Place, Sydney

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Jim Rickards on Europe and the US Economy

From Boom Bust

Published on Dec 23, 2014

Erin sits down with Jim Rickards – author of “The Death of Money” and chief global strategist at West Shore Funds – to discuss the US and Europe. In October, data coming out of the US demonstrated lower mortgage yields and a surge in refis added to 4-year lows in gas prices to give consumers more disposable income. Jim tells us what he thinks of the new data and also gives us his thoughts on divisions at the ECB. He also projects how far Chinese growth will have to fall in order to make a successful rebalancing a possibility and gives us his prediction on what will happen if oil prices continue to stay weak.


Monday, December 22, 2014

Gold Seen Falling to $1,050 in 2015?

(Bloomberg) -- Dominic Schnider, an analyst at UBS AG's wealth-management unit in Singapore, talks about energy markets, Russia's currency crisis and outlook for the price of gold. Schnider also discusses the iron ore market. He speaks with Rishaad Salamat on Bloomberg Television's "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)

Hoping Santa is Good to You This Year

Epic Santa party at Manly last Sunday afternoon.


Sunday, December 21, 2014

Santelli Explains the Ruble's Slide

May your Christmas be one of Plenty

Went to check out the Australian Christmas fare on offer at my local fish shop, it looked very yummy, if not a bit scary with the mudcrab still jumping about.




More Office Workers Switching To Fetal Position Desks

Wellness experts say curling up in a ball on the floor is the healthiest way to deal with the non-stop agony of the workday.

Keiser Report: Ruble’s Baptism by Fire

From RT

Published on Dec 20, 2014

Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert are joined by Liam Halligan of BNE.eu. They talk rubles, sanctions and diversifying the economy with some technology investments.

In the second half, Max interviews Konstantin Gurdgiev about the ruble, the Russian budget and David Cameron’s take on the causes and consequences of the crisis and sanctions. They also discuss the ruble’s ‘baptism by fire’ as it only just joined the five trillion dollar per day forex markets.


Alasdair Macleod - Russia to move to a Gold Standard?

From SilverDoctors


Hoping Santa makes you Happy this year

May all your presents be surprising and glowing.....


Quote of the Week

Saturday, December 20, 2014

All the Gold You Could Eat

The ultimate secret Santa present for your gold bug, 999.9 gold leaf gilded chocolate macaroons.




Russia Seen More Likely to Sell Dollar Rather Than Gold

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Mark O'Byrne, executive director at Goldcore Ltd., says Russia is more likely to dip into its dollar reserves than sell gold to stem the ruble's decline. He speaks to Anna Edwards, Mark Barton and Manus Cranny on Bloomberg's Television's "Countdown."

Andy Hoffman - Inflection Point: Unprecedented Fear As Everything Falls Apart

From SGTreport.com


Get REAL - Gold Heading From West to East

From MaxKeiserTV

Friday, December 19, 2014

Frances Madden - "If This Were A Dream"



Paul Craig Roberts - US Government Most Corrupt on Earth

From Greg Hunter

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Jim Rickards - Fed Will Implement QE4 in Early 2016

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- On today’s “The Roundup,” James Rickards, author of “Currency Wars,” Bloomberg's Trish Regan, Lisa Abramowicz and Douglas Lavanture break down some of the day’s top market stories on “Street Smart.”

Sydney Stays Strong

Quiet and respectful scenes in Martin Place this morning as Sydneysiders and visitors paid tribute to the sacrifice of two of our own, who paid the ultimate price for protecting those they loved.

On a personal note the Lindt Cafe is one of my favourite cafe's and my daughter's regular coffee spot, either of us could have been in that store that day, but thankfully we were not. Others we know were friends of one of the deceased and our thoughts are with them.



Gold protects Russians from Currency Collapse

Gold has increased 25% price in Russian Rubles over the last 30 days.

chart from bullion-rates.com

Keiser Report: Oil can combust & blow it all

From RT

Published on Dec 16, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the blood-bathing in the oil related markets - from the Dubai stock exchange to the West Australian fracking company gone bust to some of the highest paid jobs in America being laid off. In the second half Max interviews former banker turned independent media star, Brian Rose of London Real TV and Silicon Real. They discuss whether or not London can ever be a new Silicon Valley.

Boom Bust on Oil, Immigration and Innovation

From Boom Bust

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Double barrel: Ruble plunges to 5-year low

From RT

Published on Dec 15, 2014

Even if oil prices nosedive to as low as 40 dollars per barrel OPEC will not cut production to drive them back up. That's the message from officials of the cartel.

Oil may see temporary dips to $20-30

Monday, December 15, 2014

Juice Rap News - The New World Order

From RT

The New World Order: They control the world's governments, they rule over all of us from the top of the pyramid. And we are the victims. Right? This episode of Juice Rap News blows open the truth about the NWO in order to shed light on this widespread conspiracy, which has frequently been invoked to explain the state of our world.


Sunday, December 14, 2014

Repatriation Contagion: Austria May Recall 225 Tons of Gold From BOE, is France Next?

From SilverDoctors

Abby Martin - What the US Torture Report Isn’t Telling You

From breakingtheset

Published on Dec 11, 2014

Why is the corporate media turning torture into a debate? Abby Martin discusses the media’s reaction to the Senate torture report and why torture has suddenly turned into a partisan debate.


Weekend Chillout - Walkin' Away My Blues

With the gold price up over 11% in the last month in AUD, Aussie gold investors have definitely walked away from their blues of the mid-year doldrums.

From my good friend Frances Madden - "Walkin' Away My Blues", Frances has a new studio album out, just in time Christmas (it even has a Christmas song on it). The CD can be purchased here or from itunes and google play.






Saturday, December 13, 2014

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Keiser Report: Unjust Road to Independence

From RT

Published on Dec 6, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert look at the injustice which may lead to independence, from “embarrassed” RBS bankers getting away with mortgage fraud to the Washington DC police department scheduling future Civil Asset Forfeitures to meet budget requirements. In the second half, Max continues his interview with Chris Powell of GATA about negative GOFO rates in the gold market.

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Belgium Investigating To Repatriate All Gold Reserves?

Thanks to Koos Jansen for the heads up on this one.

From BullionStar

December 5, 2104. VTM-nieuws reports the Belgium central bank has confirmed it’s investigating to repatriate all its gold reserves.

The Chinese Beverly Hills - Where Chinese Millionaires House their Kids, and Mistresses

From Vocativ

Published on Dec 5, 2014

The town of Arcadia California has gained the nickname "the Chinese Beverly Hills". Peggy Fong Chen, who makes a living selling high priced real estate in Arcadia, says that almost all of her buyers are from mainland China. She also pointed out that almost all of her clients pay for their multi million dollar homes in cash. Many Chinese billionaires buy these homes along with exotic cars for their children who are often sent to American colleges. Others use these mansions are for housing their mistresses. Whatever their reasons may be the Chinese elite are buying up American real estate to the tune of $22 billion last year alone.


Friday, December 5, 2014

Chinese business leaders flock to Australia

Wednesday, 3 Dec 2014
Some of China's most illustrious business leaders arrived in Australia this past week on the hunt for investments. CNBC's Matthew Taylor reports.
 

Weekend Chillout - Besame Mucho

With the ECB and Super Mario Draghi saying that the bank will buy mucho anything (but not gold) I thought we would go The Full Mucho with this weekend's chillout.

Actually so Mucho that I am going to attend the launch of Frances Madden band's first studio album this Saturday night at an underground jazz club in Sydney. If you would also like to come along the details are here


Draghi - "We will buy all assets but Gold"

Always the Western Central Banker, when discussing QE Draghi says - "We discussed (buying) all assets but Gold"

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Mario Draghi spoke at a news conference in Frankfurt on Dec. 4 about interest rates, the euro-area economy and details of the ECB's purchase of covered bonds and asset-backed securities. (Excerpts. Video courtesy of European Central Bank. Source: Bloomberg).

Keiser Report: Dutch Gold Repatriation

From RT

Published on Dec 4, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert are joined by Liam Halligan of Business New Europe (www.bne.eu) to discuss Martin Wolf’s analytical article in the Financial Times about the “radical measures” needed to combat our “unusual economic ills.” They also discuss Max’s response, published as the lead “Letters” item in the FT. In the second half, Max interviews Chris Powell of GATA about the failed Swiss Gold Initiative, the successful Dutch repatriation of 122 tons of gold and about the negative GOFO rates in the gold market.


Thursday, December 4, 2014

Martin Armstrong on Gold, Silver, Oil and Bonds

From Talk Digital Network

Published on Dec 2, 2014

Guest's website: http://armstrongeconomics.com/
Produced by http://www.HoweStreet.com


The Year 2021: $10,000 Gold & $700 Silver - An Empirical Model

From SGTreport.com

Published on Sep 7, 2014

Deviant Investor 's Gary Christenson joins me to discuss his new book 'Gold Value and Gold Prices From 1971 - 2021'. Gary's empirical model projects a Gold price of $10,000 by the year 2021 and a Silver price any where from $500 - $1,000. Gary notes that these numbers are based on simple mathematical projections using current levels of government spending which will undoubtedly continue unabated. Gary's conservative empirical model does NOT even factor in the possibility of US debt default, Weimar-style hyperinflation of the Dollar or other dramatic economic catastrophes.

Gary's website:
http://deviantinvestor.com/


Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Citi - Gold Is Equivalent to Shiny Bitcoin

When Citi's analyst Willem Buiter popped up last week with his "Gold: A Six Thousand Year-Old Bubble Revisited" paper I thought him a bit odd, but in comparison to the fools he is talking to in this video he is a genius goldbug.

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, and Mark Ellwood, author of “Bargain Fever,” talk about the fascination with gold shared by investors and consumers. They speak on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Chris Powell - Central Banks Suppressing Gold Price to Rig Currencies

Hong Kong - The Battle for Mong Kok


Moody's Downgrades Japan to A1 from Aa3

Press Release from Moodys.com

Release link

Global Credit Research - 01 Dec 2014

Singapore, December 01, 2014 -- Moody's Investors Service today downgraded the Government of Japan's debt rating by one notch to A1 from Aa3. The outlook is stable.

The key drivers for the downgrade are the following:

1. Heightened uncertainty over the achievability of fiscal deficit reduction goals;

2. Uncertainty over the timing and effectiveness of growth enhancing policy measures, against a background of deflationary pressures; and

3. In consequence, increased risk of rising JGB yields and reduced debt affordability over the medium term.

The A1 rating reflects the government's significant credit strengths, including a large, diverse economy with a strong external position, very high institutional strength and a very strong domestic funding base.

The stable outlook reflects the broad balance between upside risks including significant fiscal consolidation and a resumption of economic growth, and downside risks including intensification of deflationary pressures and loss in economic momentum.

The rating action does not affect Japan's Aaa foreign currency, local currency country and bank deposit ceilings. Those ceilings act as a cap on ratings that can be assigned to the obligations of other entities domiciled in the country.

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR DOWNGRADE

DRIVER 1: HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY OVER REACHING FISCAL TARGETS AND CONTAINING DEBT

The first driver for the downgrade of the Japan government's debt rating to A1 is the rising uncertainty over whether the government's medium-term deficit reduction goal is achievable, and whether policy makers can overcome the tensions inherent in promoting growth while simultaneously stabilizing and reversing the rising debt trajectory.

The Bank of Japan remains committed to monetary expansion, with some positive impact on core CPI inflation. However, while monetary expansion has boosted domestic aggregate demand to some extent, the consumption tax increase on April 1 2014 has exerted even more powerful downward pressure. At least in the short term, deficit reduction is undermining the growth revitalization objective of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policy strategy.

The government's response, to announce a delay in the second step in the consumption tax increase, appears to represent a shift in policy towards stemming re-emerging deflationary pressures on economic growth and away from near-term fiscal deficit reduction. This strategy could have merits. In our view, the government's target of halving the primary deficit balance, excluding budgetary interest payments, by fiscal 2015 from its fiscal 2010 level will be difficult to achieve without more robust nominal GDP growth and hence improved buoyancy in tax revenues. In their absence, reaching the long-term target of a primary balance surplus by 2020 will be even more challenging.

However, the strategy also poses risks to fiscal consolidation and, over the longer-term, to debt affordability and sustainability. Japan's deficits and debt remain very high, and fiscal consolidation will become increasingly difficult to achieve as time passes given rising government spending, particularly for social programs associated with a rapidly ageing population.

The government acknowledges that additional but as yet unidentified economic and fiscal reforms will be needed for Japan to achieve its primary balance target in the second half of this decade. But the postponement of the second stage of the increase in the consumption tax has resulted in the delay of the 2015 budget, and a concrete plan to meet fiscal targets is not likely to emerge until the second half of 2015. The trajectory of government debt, projected at 245% of GDP in 2014 according to the IMF, will only start to decline under the most favorable combination of economic and fiscal reforms, including tax and social security system reforms and total factor productivity improvements, an end to deflation and achievement of annual nominal GDP growth of more than 3.5%. Given current domestic circumstances and lackluster external demand for Japan's exports, achieving these conditions will be challenging.

DRIVER 2: ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND CHALLENGES IN ENDING DEFLATION

The second driver for the downgrade is the rising uncertainty over the government's ability to enhance medium term growth through structural economic reform -- the third 'arrow' of Abenomics -- success in which will be crucial to achieve fiscal consolidation. While some indicators suggest a pick-up in economic activity over the past year, potential economic growth remains low.

GDP growth sharply contracted in the second quarter of this year following the introduction on 1 April of the first step of the consumption tax increase, to 8% from 5%. Output was also affected by adverse weather in the summer to some extent. And both real and nominal GDP contracted again in the third quarter of the year, putting Japan's economy in recession for the third time since global financial crisis.

Moreover the relapse of the GDP deflator, the broadest measure of price movements, into negative territory in the third quarter of this year highlights the difficult nature of ending more than a decade of deflation. Although the ratcheting up by the Bank of Japan of its quantitative easing policies in October may once again move the deflator back onto positive ground in the fourth quarter of 2014, the task ahead for economic revitalization and price reflation is looking more challenging than envisaged by Prime Minister Abe when he introduced his three-arrow economic policy package in March 2013.

Looking further ahead, the most notable structural reform measure to be implemented to date is a reduction in corporate taxation beginning in fiscal 2015. The details have yet to be announced, and the implications for business investment are therefore still unclear. It is not yet clear what further measures the government will choose, or be able, to take to address the deep-rooted structural problems of Japan's economy, including broadening labor force participation, enhancing corporate governance and dealing with the challenges posed by demographic trends.

DRIVER 3: EROSION OF POLICY EFFECTIVENESS AND CREDIBILITY COULD UNDERMINE DEBT AFFORDABILITY

The third driver for the downgrade is the potential implications of the first two drivers for the affordability and sustainability of Japan's huge debt load. Debt sustainability will rest on the continued willingness of domestic investors to provide funding at affordable rates for the government. This looks likely to remain the case as long as investor confidence is not undermined. The JGB market has been characterized by low and stable interest rates despite the exceptional rise in debt since the 1990s. And JGB interest rates have remained low and stable through a number of crisis episodes, including Japan's 1997-1998 financial crisis, the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster.

Nonetheless, the Bank of Japan's efforts to raise inflation to 2% may eventually put pressure on government bond yields and thereby raise government borrowing costs. Rising interest rates would increase expenditure and offset gains from revenue buoyancy. Rising uncertainty regarding the government's capacity to deliver on its policy objectives could raise yields without any commensurate rise in revenues. Either outcome would further undermine the government's ability to meet its fiscal deficit targets and reduce its debt burden over the medium term, and eventually start to undermine debt sustainability.

RATIONALE FOR A1 RATING AND STABLE OUTLOOK

JAPAN'S CREDIT STRENGTHS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP DOMESTIC BOND MARKET, STRONG INSTITUTIONS, LOW VULNERABILITY TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS

Whatever the challenges facing the government, Japan retains very significant credit strengths. Its A1 rating and stable outlook are supported by its large, diverse economy, which we characterize as having 'High' economic strength. And even with the very significant debt burden, we believe that Japan exhibits only 'Low' susceptibility to event risk. A marked home bias on the part of resident investors provides a strong funding base —domestic investors retain a marked preference for government bonds, which has allowed fiscal deficits to be funded at the lowest nominal rates globally over the past two decades. Private sector fiscal surpluses remain more than adequate to fund government deficits, without the government resorting to external funding. We believe that very high institutional and structural strengths, including a decisive and powerful central bank, currently sustain this funding advantage and are very unlikely to diminish over the rating horizon.

Although Japan's government gross financing requirements are far larger than other advanced country governments', contingent risks which could elevate further such financing needs are low and remote. Japan's banking and corporate sectors have restored their health in recent years in terms of capitalization and deleveraging. Household debt is at a moderate level and has remained stable over the past decade. And despite low economic growth, Japan's labor market is relatively sound in regard to key features, such as low unemployment level, the recent pick-up in employment and nominal wages and a labor force participation rate broadly comparable with other advanced economies.

Related to Japan's home bias is its strong external payments position, which reflects the accumulated system-wide savings. At more than 60% of GDP in 2013, Japan's net international investment position is much larger than any advanced industrial G-20 economy, insulating its economy and capital market from global shocks. Income earned from Japan's sizable external assets has helped to sustain the current account surpluses, although this has diminished owing to a shift into a trade deficit which is in large part driven by the demand for energy imports following the shutdown in the nuclear power industry after the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster.

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING DOWN / UP

While the stable outlook indicates that we believe the rating is well positioned for the next twelve to eighteen months, factors that could prompt a negative rating action include significant divergence from the path toward achieving fiscal targets; an intensification of deflationary pressures; a severe loss in economic momentum; or a shift in the external current account surplus into persistent deficit.

Moody's would consider a positive rating action if Japan were to implement policies that we concluded were likely to restore economic momentum and improve prospects for significant fiscal consolidation and debt reduction.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 36,654 (2013 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 1.5% (2013 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 1.6% (2013 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -8.2% (2013 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: 0.7% (2013 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: [not available]

Level of economic development: Very High level of economic resilience

Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.

On 26 November 2014, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Japan, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's institutional strength/framework, have materially decreased. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. An analysis of this issuer, relative to its peers, indicates that a repositioning of its rating would be appropriate.

The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in September 2013. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this rating action, if applicable.

Press releases of other ratings affected by this action will follow separately.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com. 


For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Monday, December 1, 2014

Keiser Report: Goodbye, Wealth!

From RT

Published on Nov 27, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the fact that we are all Jack Johnson now - bankrupted by those we trust or, in the case of the central banks - distrust - all in the name of property speculation and other non-wealth producing speculative pursuits.

In the second half Max interviews the founder of Nanex, Eric Hunsader, about high frequency trading, market making and scalping markets.

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Weekend Chillout - The Silver Price Remembers the 80's

I thought we would take a trip back in time to when the USD silver price had a $15 handle, no not last Friday, the Eighties!! - Do you remember the 80's? Well most of it was best forgotten but there were some gems worth rescuing, like this video of a ridiculously self confident 17yo Kate Ceberano. Watch this video and you just know she was destined for bigger things.



From my facebook page, Kate still remembers the 80's, afer all she was there.

Gold Shortage, Worst In 21st Century, Sends 1Y GOFO To Lowest Ever... And India Just Made It Worse

From Zerohedge.com

Article link

While we have covered the aberration that is a negative gold GOFO rate previously and in extensive detail in this post, an abridged version of what negative GOFO means comes courtesy of Deutsche Bank's recent discussion on what a successful Swiss gold referendum. To wit: "It is interesting to note that benchmark gold-dollar swap rates have recently traded negative, meaning investors are paying to borrow gold. This is unusual as gold is traditionally used as a source of collateral for cash financing.... [A] number of factors may play a role, such as excess dollar liquidity or an increased demand for collateral on the back of the global regulatory developments." In short a gold shortage at the institutional, read commercial and central bank, level. And not just a shortage but the biggest shortage in history, judging by today's latest plunge in the 1 Month GOFO which just dropped to -0.5% and , worse, 1 Year GOFO that just hit its lowest print in the 21st century, and is also about to go negative: something that has never happened before further suggesting the gold shortage could go on for a long, long time!
Negative GOFO

To be sure, GOFO has printed negative in the past, although the two most prominent historic plunges were due to acute events which promptly renormalized, and were not the result of what has now become a chronic gold collateral shortage via the swaps market.

The best known example of a complete collapse in the GOFO rate, is the September 1999 Washington Agreement on Gold, which was an imposed "cap" on gold sales (mostly European in the aftermath of Gordon Brown's idiotic sale of UK's gold) to the tune of 400 tons per year. The tangent of the Washington Agreement is quite interesting in its own right. Recall the words of Milling-Stanley from the 12th Nikkei Gold Conference:
"Central bank independence is enshrined in law in many countries, and central bankers tend to be independent thinkers. It is worth asking why such a large group of them decided to associate themselves with this highly unusual agreement...At the same time, through our close contacts with central banks, the Council has been aware that some of the biggest holders have for some time been concerned about the impact on the gold price—and thus on the value of their gold reserves—of unfounded rumours, and about the use of official gold for speculative purposes.

"Several of the central bankers involved had said repeatedly they had no intention of selling any of their gold, but they had been saying that as individuals—and no-one had taken any notice. I think that is what Mr. Duisenberg meant when he said they were making this statement to clarify their intentions."
Of course, this happened in a time long ago, when the primacy of Fractional reserve banking was sacrosanct, when the first Greenspan credit bubble (dot com) was yet to appear, and when barbarous relics were indeed a thing of the past, only to be proven oh so contemporary following not one, not two, but three subsequent cheap-credit bubbles which have vastly undermined the religious faith in fiath and central banking, sending the price of gold to all time highs as recently as 2011.

Another subsequent negative GOFO episode occurred in early 2001, which coincided with what has been rumored to be a speculative attack and reversal of the futures market. However, while pushing 1 month rates negative, 3 month rates remained well positive.

The only other time when both 1M and 3M GOFOs were both negative or almost so (3M touched on 0.05%) was in the aftermath of the AIG bailout following the Lehman collapse in November 2008, which reset the GOFO rate to just barely above 0% where it has traded for most of the time, at least until last summer when in a widely documented episode of negative GOFO rates, GOFO went negative in July of 2013 and remained in negative territory for over a month.

Which brings us to today, when not only is the 1 Month GOFO rate the most negative it has been since 2001, not only is 2 through 6 Month GOFO also negative, and in fact the 6 Month GOFO is now negative for the longest stretch in history clocking in at 11 consecutive days, but, strangest of all, the gold curve backwardation is about to become absolutely historic with 1 Year GOFO just a whisper away from hitting negative territory for the first time ever at 0.02667%.



But how is it possible that there is a shortage of gold when gold prices keep tumbling day after day, the skeptics will ask? Simple: the shortage involves gold "available" in the repo market, i.e., gold that already has been rehypothecated one ore more times. Keep in mind that central banks rarely if ever purchase gold outright in the open market, unlike Russia of course (and perhaps China), which has been engaging in an unprecedented gold buying spree over the past year. The rest of the commercial and central banks merely rely on shadow banking conduits and other repo channels to satisfy their gold needs, all of which merely demand the "presence" of synthetic, if not actual physical gold.
It is this synthetic "shadow" gold that is now actively disappearing from the system.Of course, if and when central banks were to tip their hand and reveal the unprecedented synthetic shortage to the physical market, the actual cleared market may well go bid only.

India shocks observers by scrapping gold import rule

One event that may stretch the already ridiculous disconnect between physical and swap-based gold, is the announcement earlier today by India which just scrapped a rule mandating traders to export 20 percent of all gold imported into the country, in a surprise move that could cut smuggling and raise legal shipments into the world's second-biggest consumer of the metal after China.
As Reuters reports, "along with a record duty of 10 percent, India introduced the so-called 80:20 import rule tying imports to exports of jewellery last year to bring down inbound shipments and narrow the current account deficit that had hit a record.

"It has been decided by the Government of India to withdraw the 20:80 scheme and restrictions placed on import of gold," the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday, without giving a reason for the change in the rule.

The reason today's announcement was stunning is that only days ago there were talks between officials of the Mumbai-based central bank and the finance ministry in New Delhi to bring back curbs on some trading houses following a surge in imports over the past few months.

Traders said before the decision on Friday that India's gold imports could climb to around 100 tonnes for a third straight month in November as dealers bought heavily on fears of curbs on overseas purchases, especially as the wedding season picks up.

The government's latest move came as a surprise even to some officials.
A policymaker associated with India's gold import policy said the government instructed the RBI at 1830 local time on Friday to urgently change the rule. A notification was posted on the central bank's website two hours later.
"We were not informed about the reason for scrapping this rule. The restrictions on who all can import who can't are still valid," said the policymaker, declining to be named as he is not authorised to talk to media.
And while those in control are unhappy that India's relentless appetite for gold is about to return, and in the process slam the country's current account deficit, at least one group is happy: "the rule change was a relief to jewellers facing difficulties in sourcing gold during the key festival and wedding season that started in October."
Bachhraj Bamalwa, director of the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation, said the 80:20 rule was not only encouraging smuggling but was also misused by many traders.

From getting human mules to swallow nuggets to hiding gold bars in dead cows, smugglers had raised their activity since the middle of last year after the import curbs.

Following the disbanding of the 80:20 rule, the government may place a monthly or yearly quota for traders, said Sudheesh Nambiath, a senior analyst at consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS.

"Quota is a more logical and simple way of monitoring and limiting gold imports," Nambiath said.
Bottom line: one can again add India to the list of end-market where hundreds of tons of physical gold will end up, never to be heard from again.
And then there is of course the wildcard of the Swiss gold referendum on Sunday, where a "Yes" vote would lead to the immediate collapse of the gold price suppression mechanism as the swap-based gold shortage breaks through merely shadow conduits and finally makes its way to the real market. Which, of course, is why it will never be allowed to happen.

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Black Friday Madness comes to Gold and Silver Markets

Seems the Gold and Silver markets have embraced the Black Friday sales concept and sold off, giving shoppers sale prices on both metals.

Gold was down 2.5% and silver down a massive 6.64% for the day. In Australian dollar terms it meant that gold was off $30/oz and silver off a whopping $50/kg!

Several factors seem to be in play at the moment, the Swiss Gold Referendum is on Sunday (polls indicate a No vote) and the continuing slide in the oil price have both weighed down the gold market and which has been amplified in the much smaller silver market.


charts from goldprice.org

Friday, November 28, 2014

Citi - "Gold: A Six Thousand Year-Old Bubble Revisited"

If Citi a analyst thinks he is smarter than 6,000 years history, and billions of people alive, and dead (many of them dead from mining and fighting over gold) then the chances of him being right are?......

Click here or on the image to access the full report

http://willembuiter.com/gold2.pdf


Thursday, November 27, 2014

Axel Merk on Swiss gold referendum

Christie’s Hong Kong Autumn Sales Netted $388M

Just as well there is no inflation.

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) –- Christie’s Chairman & International Head of Asian Art Jonathan Stone discusses Christie’s Hong Kong Autumn Sale, some of the pieces that were up for sale and the records that were set with Angie Lau on “First Up.”

Australian Housing: Are Foreign Buyer Rules Broken?

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) –- The flood of foreign money into Australia has pushed up property prices and critics say it’s gone too far and that rules are being bent. Bloomberg’s Paul Allen reports on “First Up.”

 

The Death of Paper Money

First the elite took our gold, then our silver and finally our paper money, and with that went our right to spend freely.

From IFO Institut

 

Douglas French: Keynesians Desperate To Keep Boom Going

From WallStForMainSt

Published on Nov 21, 2014

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed former President of the Mises Institute Mises.org, author, former banker and contributing editor to Casey Research, Douglas French.

Doug's bio and the titles of his 3 books for purchase can be found here: http://www.caseyresearch.com


The Birth of a Gold Bar


Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Someones Wrong


GoldSeek Radio with Chris Martenson and GATA's Bill Murphy

From GoldSeek.com Radio

Vive le France! - Marine Le Pen Demands Central Bank Repatriate French Gold

France's opposition party leader Marine Le Pen has on the back of the upcoming Swiss Gold vote and the recent Netherlands gold repatriation, asked the Governor of the Banque de France to grow some and audit/repatriate France's central bank gold reserves. Her letter to the Governor follows, for those who are unsure who Marine Le Pen is an interview with her (dubbed into English) follows.

Translated from French by Google Translate:

Mr. Christian Noyer
Governor of the Banque de France
31 rue Croix des Petits-Champs
75049 PARIS Cedex 01

Nanterre, November 24, 2014

Open letter to Mr Christian Noyer on the gold reserves of France 

Dear Governor,

On behalf of the French and in my capacity as the main opposition leader, I am writing to you because it is my duty to present a petition on the gold reserves of France, in the best interests of our nation.

Even before the outbreak of the 2008 crisis, the National Front had anticipated and informed the political institutions of the future worsening of the macro-economic and geopolitical context. As part of the business model increasingly libertarian adopted by France under pressure from Brussels, no economic fundamentals may not sustained improvement. All French can see that the austerity policies demanded by the EU and the ECB and implemented by the government are a proven failure and serious for our country.

The monetary institution you lead has a historic mission to be the custodian of national central bank monetary reserves, including its gold reserves. According to our strategic vision and sovereign, they are neither the state nor the Bank of France but the French people and in addition serve as the ultimate guarantee of public debt and our currency.

In monetary Cold War played between the Western countries and the BRICS countries, gold gradually takes an important role. According to the World Gold Council, China's official gold reserves, India and Russia have increased significantly between 2007 and 2013.

For these reasons and because of the rapid growth of global systemic risk, it is of utmost importance to the future solvency of our nation to engage, by mid-2015, a detailed audit procedure, the results will be the subject of a report. This report must obtain validation of French macro-prudential authorities, ACPR, and will be made public in the year.

This comprehensive audit should contain:

- A complete inventory of physical gold amounts to 2435 tons currently displayed and their quality (serial number, purity, bars 'Good Delivery' ...), conducted by an independent French body (to be defined). This inventory, under supervision of a bailiff, must indicate the country in which the gold reserves are stored in France or abroad.

- A census of all formal financial employment agreement or secret vis-à-vis private banks and corporations, or bilateral loan between France and national and international institutions, having pawned the gold of France to ensure rescue of the euro. In this case, the comprehensive audit should contain the conditions of agreement or loans.

Otherwise:

Whereas, on 30 November, will take place in Switzerland a vote on a request from popular initiative referendum "Save gold for Switzerland" of the UDC party (Democratic Union of the Centre) which provides for the repatriation of their reserves of gold on their soil.

Whereas at the request of some national central banks informed, this country phenomenon for the "return of national gold reserves" and democratic control exists since 2013 in Germany (Bundesbank), Poland etc.

Whereas the Dutch Central Bank recently said it had repatriated 122.5 tons of gold.

Whereas, on 19 May 2014 the Bank of France along with other banks of the Eurosystem, announced it has signed the Washington Agreement gold sales CBGA 4 (Dirty Gold Under the Central Bank Gold Agreements) which provides no transfer of quotas on this five-year period (2014-2019), in contrast to the three previous agreements.

Whereas in fact, the Bank of France already independent, conducted as part of the agreement CBGA 2 on gold sales agreed in 2004 by Nicolas Sarkozy, then Minister of Economy and Finance of the Raffarin government.

The declared official target of more actively manage the foreign exchange reserves of the state to generate € 100 million in additional tax revenue in 2005. N. Sarkozy also said that gold sales would be used "either to finance investments that prepare the future, either to reduce the debt, but in no case to fund operating expenses. "
Over the period 2004-2012, about 614.6 tonnes of gold were sold by France, while at the same time the other central banks of the Eurosystem with the ECB have agreed to limit their gold sales. According to a report of the Court of Auditors in 2012, this operation is extremely costly for public authorities and constitutes a serious violation of the national heritage, made without any democratic consultation.

Mr Governor, according to your statements, "gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves." For the French, you are considered the ultimate guarantor of the security of this gold reserve and therefore the stability of our currency and national financial stability. As a result, your responsibility is huge.

Also, depending on the situation we discover, I urge you to do it:

- In urgent repatriation on French soil of all of our gold reserves located abroad.
- In immediate discontinuation of any gold sales program.
- Conversely, a gradual reallocation of a significant portion of foreign exchange reserves in the balance sheet of the Bank of France by buying gold at each significant decrease in the price of an ounce (recommendation 20%) .
- A suspension of any financial commitment or loan contract would wager that our gold reserves.
- At the patrimonial and financial balance of the 2004 gold sales transactions ordered by N. Sarkozy.

The implementation of these measures is crucial for the future of France face socio-economic problems that may occur.

Just like your heroic predecessors of the Bank of France in 1939 and 1940 had organized the evacuation of French gold, you need to undertake this vast national treasure of the security operation, patriotic act which will be recognized in due time by the public opinion.

I sincerely hope that, respectful of your duties as a senior official in the service of the state, you demonstrate lucidity and courage necessary for the defence of the general interest of our country. The stakes are high, it is the future of France in question!

Please accept, Excellency the Governor, the assurances of my highest consideration.

Marine Le Pen

From RT

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Friday, November 21, 2014

Weekend Chillout - My Heart Is A Wheel

Well this week has seen the gold market on a wheel, going around from $1160 to $1200 and back again. Hopefully we can find away out of this wheel rut soon.

By the way it is stinking hot in Sydney today so a strawberry ice cream would go down well right now.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Matt Taibbi on Why Bankers Will Always Stay Out of Jail

From breakingtheset

Published on Nov 19, 2014

Abby Martin speaks with Rolling Stone journalist, Matt Taibbi, about a JP Morgan Chase whistleblower that has come forward to expose how the company knowingly sold toxic mortgages to investors and how the Justice Department used her as a pawn in its settlement negotiations with the financial giant.

Worldwide War For Physical - Andy Hoffman

From SGTreport.com

Gold Seek Radio interviews Ron Paul on Gold and Liberty

From GoldSeek.com Radio

Gerald Celente: First Financial Calamity then War

From Greg Hunter

Keiser Report: Big Problem? Regulators!

From RT

Published on Nov 18, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss precious metals manipulation in Switzerland and the costs of the never-ending banking fraud - from the ‘suffering and life long risks’ to children in Europe and beyond to the rising cost of food hitting lower income consumers.

In the second half Max interviews Alasdair Macleod about gold, China, QE and the economy.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Keiser Report: 'Numpty' Taxes

From RT

Published on Nov 15, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss ‘numpty’ taxes and ‘stupid’ Ireland as bankers and central bankers treat everyone else like the ‘muppets’ they believe we are. They also discuss Angela Merkel refusing to meet with Timothy Geithner and how it is that QE is causing deflation.

In the second half, Max interviews Matt Taibbi about his Rolling Stone exclusive on the JP Morgan whistleblower, Alayne Fleischmann, who was interviewed in the previous episode of the Keiser Report.

Boom Bust - “QE is the greatest marketing success in economics history”

From Boom Bust

Indian PM Modi speaks to Australian Federal Parliament

From ABC News (Australia)

Published on Nov 17, 2014

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a joint sitting of Parliament, highlighting his country's progress and challenges for the future.

Claudio Grass - The Average Swiss Worker is in Favor of Gold

From The Daily Coin.org

Greenspan Comes Out as a Gold Bug

From TheAlexJonesChannel

Published on Nov 14, 2014

Ted Anderson of Midas Resources analyzes former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s candid remarks to the CFR about the supremacy of gold to any fiat currency. The comments were initially cut out but later restored as audio tape surfaced. Ted Anderson also looks at recent changes in tax law in Oklahoma affecting gold and the upcoming Swiss election where returning the Swiss franc to partial gold backing is on the ballot.

Peter Schiff - Live by QE Die by QE. Don’t Be Fooled by the Strong Dollar

From Greg Hunter

Eric Sprott: Global Gold Demand Is Overwhelming Supply

From ChrisMartensondotcom

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Marc Faber: Gold Price, US Dollar & the Swiss Gold Initiative

From Goldbrokercom

Published on Nov 12, 2014

Dan Popescu exclusive interview with Marc Faber (economist and market forecaster) on gold, the US dollar, China and the Swiss gold Referendum.

WTF just happened to the Gold and Silver Price?

Explosive action on the Comex today in both gold and silver. What happened to $1180 being the new overhead resistance?


charts from goldprice.org

Chris Powell of GATA: Gold Manipulation Historical Fact Not Conspiracy Theory

From WallStForMainSt

Keiser Report: Whistleblower Alayne Fleischmann (JP Morgan 'worst nightmare') talks to Max

From RT

Published on Nov 13, 2014

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the shouts of ‘Ya Me Cansé’ as the people are sick of a corrupt elite above the law. They also look at the headlines of students in India who believe in the right to cheat and at the innocent people who plead guilty to crimes they didn’t commit in America.

In the second half Max interviews Alayne Fleischmann, the JP Morgan whistleblower, profiled in the latest Rolling Stone magazine. They talk about fraud in the mortgage backed securities business, the statute of limitations on wire fraud and what exactly it is that Jamie Dimon wants.

Marc Faber still says the stock market is about to crash and it will be bigger than he previously forecast

Friday, November 14, 2014

Weekend Chillout - When the War is Over

With both Alan Greenspan and seemingly ISIS coming out on the same side of the Gold vs Fiat war this week it seems this 43 year old war is starting to heat up.

IS becomes the only State with Real Money - Gold, Silver and Copper

From zerohedge.com

Article link

It appears the rumors are true. Islamic State is set to become the only 'state' to back its currency with gold (silver and copper) as it unveils the new coins that will be used in an attempt to solidify its makeshift caliphate. ISIS says the new currency will take the group  out of "the oppressors' money system."





As Zaid Benjamin notes, ISIS releases details of its new currancy with golden 1 & 5 dinar, silver 1, 5, 10 dirham and copper 10 & 20 fils 

*  *  *
It seems Alan Greenspan may have been on to something after all...
"Remember what we're looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency. No fiat currency, including the dollar, can match it."
*  *  *

Of course this will mean more physical demand - along with Russia and China - and so more price suppression by the West.

*  *  *

------ End of article -------

I suspect that someone in ISIS has been paying attention to the advice of the Swiss trained (in Economics) Sheikh Imran Hosein.

Did The BoJ Quietly Peg The Yen To Gold?

From Zerohedge.com

Article link

For 14 years, as Japan's economic demise grew more and more evident, its currency devalued relative to gold (the only non-fiat numeraire). When Abenomics began, the trend began to stabilize... but for the last year or so - as The Fed tapered - JPY and Gold have practically flatlined around 132,000 JPY per ounce. This 'odd' stability stands in strangely stark contrast to the volatility and trends in the USD, JPY, and Gold over this period. Even amid the collapse in JPY in recent weeks, it has remained firmly inside a 3% envelope of the 'peg'.

A long trend of JPY fiat devaluation as Japan's lost decades are priced in...


Then odd stability...


Of course, this is conjecture, but doesn't it seem a little odd that with all the hot money flows and violent swings in the last year around the world, that this relationship has been for all intent and purpose - flat and managed.

Charts: Bloomberg

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Tweet of the Week