Saturday, April 23, 2011

Consumer demand in India and China will be long-term driver of Gold price

From the Irish Independent:

With the price of gold continuing to test record nominal highs, it would be easy for investors to think they've already missed the boat if they're seeking decent returns.

After all, in dollar terms, at over $1,500 an ounce, the price has risen two-and-a-half fold in the past five years; and even over the past 12 months, it's up 37pc.

Geopolitical turmoil, a yawning US deficit and concerns over its credit outlook, as well as instability in the euro region, are all elements that are helping to underpin gold prices.

This week, Evy Hambro, who manages the $17bn (€11.7bn) Blackrock World Mining Fund, said that he believed gold prices may keep rising for "some years into the future".

"When you look at the underlying fundamentals in gold, they're all very supportive of today's pricing points and of pricing points higher than where we're trading right now," said Mr Hambro.

"So we would expect to see this positive, gradually rising price trend in gold to continue for some years into the future. I think some of the uncertainty that exists around exchange rates, quantitative easing, what paper money will buy you in the future, all of that is only helping gold from a financial point of view."

But it's simple consumer demand that is also expected to sustain high gold prices. The World Gold Council (WGC) -- a London-based organisation that promotes the use of the metal -- recently estimated that by 2020 cumulative annual consumer demand for gold in India -- the largest market in the world for gold jewellery -- will increase to in excess of 1,200 tonnes.

"India's continued rapid growth which will have significant impact on income and savings, will increase gold purchasing by almost 3pc per annum over the next decade," the WGC forecast.

"In 2010, total annual consumer demand reached 963.1 tonnes [in India]," it noted. "As seen in the last decade, Indian demand for gold will be driven by savings and real income levels, not by price."

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