Tuesday, November 30, 2010
There is no question that the world is at a boil
Germany is drawing anger; N. Korea has attacked S. Korea; flaying about the FED’s Mr. Bernanke blames China for America’s sad economic and financial dilemma; five suits, class action and RICO, have been filed against JPMorgan Chase and HSBC for having manipulated silver prices and class actions are rumored to be in process for naked shorting, which has been rampant in the market for years, a felony hedge fund investigation of insider trading, which the SEC has absolutely refused to pursue. The US is still occupying Iraq and has a war raging in Afghanistan to protect the opium and marijuana crops, the largest in the world, which generate $300 billion in profits a year. Socialists, having recently relinquished power in the US House of Representatives are calling Republicans an axis of depression. The socialist, what they cannot control, they attempt to destroy. It reminds us of Italy’s communists........read on
A Very Short History of Silver as Money
Most of the words for currencies in use today derive from names for silver coins. The central European "Thaler," believed by most to be the antecedent to the term Dollar (used by not less than seventeen countries and territories today), was a silver coin. The Peso (used by at least five countries that I can think of) was originally silver, and a Pound Sterling referred to a weight of coined silver, not gold. When the Pilgrims came to Plymouth in 1620, they, like their descendants, were chronically short of precious metal, but if they had any coins with them, they would have had silver in them, and not gold. Fast forward 170 years: Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton, when devising the currency for the United States, mandated 24.05 grams of pure silver for every silver dollar. Hamilton also mandated that the ratio of gold to silver be 1:15. Over the course of the next seventy years this relationship was more or less intact, except that it did oscillate, and people took advantage of trading in their expensive gold for cheaper silver and vice versa when the market distorted the ratio.......read in full
An interesting extract of Saudi Arabia offer energy security if they supported actions designed to prevent Iran building a nuclear weapon:
FM SAUD: CHINA NEEDS TO MORE ACTIVELY COUNTER
9. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Dr. Prince Torki told visiting
NEA A/S Feltman on January 26 (ref C) that FM Saud had
pressed the Chinese Foreign Minister hard on the need to be
more active in working with the rest of the international
community and the UN Security Council to counter the threat
of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. FM Saud told FM Yang
that Saudi Arabia was convinced Iran intended to develop a
nuclear weapon, despite its assurances, and that only
concerted international action could stop that. While no
explicit bargain was discussed, Dep FM Torki explained that
Saudi Arabia understood China was concerned about having
access to energy supplies, which could be cut off by Iran,
and wanted to attract more trade and investment. Saudi
Arabia was willing to provide assurances on those scores to
China, but only in exchange for tangible Chinese actions to
restrain Iran,s drive for nuclear weapons.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Punishing the populace for the bankers’ sins is worse than a crime.
Paul Krugman wrote yesterday:
These debts were incurred, not to pay for public programs, but by private wheeler-dealers seeking nothing but their own profit. Yet ordinary Irish citizens are now bearing the burden of those debts. Punishing the populace for the bankers’ sins is worse than a crime; it’s a mistake.
Mike Whitney noted yesterday:
Don’t believe the hype about European unity or saving Ireland. My ass. This is about bailing out the banks. The bondholders get a free ride while workers get kicked to the curb.
And Mish pointed out last week:
Today the Irish Government sold its citizens into debt slavery by agreeing to guarantee stupid loans made by German, British, and US banks.........read on
Sunday, November 28, 2010
By Shaun Walker in Moscow
A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.
Vladnews agency, based in Vladivostok, reported that North Korean workers had left the town of Nakhodka en masse shortly after the escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula earlier this week. "Traders have left the kiosks and markets, workers have abandoned building sites, and North Korean secret service employees working in the region have joined them and left," the agency reported.......read on
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Friday, November 26, 2010
November 24, 2010
When it last met, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) signaled its desire to increase the rate of inflation by providing additional monetary stimulus. This policy is based on a false - and dangerous - premise: that manipulating the dollar's buying power will lead to higher employment and economic growth. But the experience of the past 40 years points to the opposite conclusion: that guaranteeing a stable value for the dollar by restoring dollar-gold convertibility would be the surest way for the Federal Reserve to achieve its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.....read on
The backdrop has turned dire on several front simultaneously. The great millstone around the USEconomy's neck continues to drag it down. CoreLogic reported 2.1 million units have created a swamp in Shadow inventory of the housing market. That equates to 23 months inventory, whereas normal is 7 months. They tallied the growing tumor of bank owned properties as a result of home foreclosures, also called the REOs (real estate owned). Look for no housing market recovery for at least another two years. Starting in summer 2007, the Jackass forecast each year has been for another two years of housing market declines, all correct. Ireland might be squarely in the news, but the big enchalada is Spain. The Irish banks have presented a grand headache for the European banks, with a $150 billion exposure. Ironically, Ireland has done more to reduce its budget spending effectively than any EU member nation, yet is left to twist in the soft rain. They cut their government budget by 20%. The USGovt budget grows every year without remedy or remorse. Few seem to remember that Irish fund managers lost the German civil service pension funds a couple years ago, a source of hidden tension and great resentment. Spain will rock Europe and the Euro currency in the springtime. The gold price consolidation will center on the Spain debt crisis hitting fever pitch, with the Euro hit. Then again, perhaps a mammoth new wave of European gold demand will neutralize any USDollar stability. On Tuesday this week, the Euro fell by 200 basis points, but the gold price was stable like a rock. That is notable strength. But the bigger story of strength is with silver. The round robin of destruction to major currencies that makes the Competing Currency War, the race to the bottom in rotated currency debasement, it will lift gold & silver in a round robin of strong demand.
MISDIAGNOSIS: INSOLVENCY NOT ILLIQUIDITY
The US bankers often go home to mommy and order a giant slosh of monetary inflation whenever in deep intractable trouble, like after the previous mistake in QE1 when ordering a giant slosh of monetary inflation. The USFed, led by the academic professor with no business experience, has ordered a fresh supply of gasoline from a lit fire hose, but he does so on a collapsing building. Bernanke has very erroneously diagnosed lack of liquidity within the system to be the underlying problem. He has prescribed a huge swath of 'free money' to be sent into the bond market as a solution. He has prescribed that cheap money continue to be delivered to the USEconomy. Bernanke has failed to notice the insolvency in banks, and has failed to notice that 0% has yet to prompt any revival in lending among banks. Bernanke is fighting INSOLVENCY with LIQUIDITY for a second time after learning nothing the first time.
The USTreasury 10-year yield has risen from a grand bond market dare, not at all from evidence of growth. Bond players dare the USFed to create another $1 trillion in new money. In no way does another lift in retail spending constitute a recovery. Household insolvency rises every month from worsening home loan balances. The USFed wants households to spend more on borrowed funds, yet they have depleted home equity and vanished income security. No, US bankers are confused with their wrecked financial engineering aftermath and the broad banking system insolvency that they refuse to acknowledge or discuss. Ever since the April 2009 decision by the USCongress to bless the falsified accounting practices by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, the big US banks have masked their ruined balance sheets, sold stock for their dead entities, and pretended to act as banks. Instead they are mere carry trade shells taking advantage of the USTreasury yield differentials, and storing the cash profits in the USFed, where it earns interest.
Finance minister Wolfgang Schauble from Germany was hostile in public remarks toward the desperate monetary decisions. At the recent G-20 Meeting, Schauble called USFed Chairman clueless openly (his word), describing his policies as reckless (his word). He ridiculed the USGovt approach to urge China and Germany to reduce their trade surpluses. Take surpluses as signs of success and competent industrial and policy management, where the US is void. He gives his nation credit for a strong competitive industry. He cites a direct contradiction. Schauble said, "The American growth model, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis. The United States lived on borrowed money for too long, inflating its financial sector unnecessarily, and neglecting its small and mid-sized industrial companies. There is no lack of liquidity in the USEconomy, which is why I do not recognize the economic argument behind this measure." Exactly on both counts!!! The USFed is fighting insolvency with liquidity rather than debt restructure for a second time, after learning nothing the first time. The US economists have lost their way so badly, that they no longer comprehend the concept of legitimate income. The US counselors push for putting more cash in consumer hands, regardless of where it comes from. Call it heresy, or call it incompetence, or call it blindness from the Keynesian bright lights that burn bright in the inflation laboratory.
New money does not cure an insolvent banking system or insolvent households. No sterilization of QE2 is in the plan, to serve as protection for the USEconomy. Not in QE2!! My forecast is for the hollowing out of the USEconomy from a massive cost drain with puny export benefit, compounded by continued income erosion. Price inflation will be labeled as growth, even income growth, the chronic sins. The borrowing costs have been near 0% for 18 months with no economic response, making Bernanke's points again vacant, myopic, and deficient. He is fighting an endemic insolvency problem with amplified monetary inflation. A voice with hint of wisdom came from former New York Fed President E Gerald Corrigan Corrigan. He said, "Even in the face of substantial margins of under-utilization of human and capital resources, efforts to achieve an upward nudge in today's very low inflation rate make me somewhat uncomfortable." His experience came under ex-USFed Chairman Volcker during the late 1970 decade, who raised interest rates to 20% to combat inflation, pushing the economy into the 1981-82 recession. That was the final chapter of anti-bubble USFed chieftain linneage. Since the Greenspan Era, it has been full speed ahead with inflation engineering, asset bubble creation, erudite apologists, permitted bond fraud, careful collusion, and reckless management. They have systemic failure to show for it.
The claim by Bernanke and a supporting chorus of economists that QE2 will bolster USEconomic competitiveness is fallacious, and patently backwards as usual. It will push the US further into a wasteland, a vestibule to the Third World. The higher cost structure uniformly imposed will render great damage in a profit squeeze for businesses and discretionary spending squeeze for households. New money does not cure an insolvent banking system or insolvent households. It presents a new problem of significiant price inflation. They want it, so they can call it growth!! Producing high value products efficiently and cost effectively makes the nation competitive. Imposing a fair tax structure that is stable, reasonable, and with proper incentives makes it competitive. Having an active legal prosecution staff to combat bond fraud and defense appropriation fraud makes it competitive. Having a strong education system makes it competitive. A weaker currency raises the cost structure, increases import costs, and assists the export trade if a nation has one. The United States has shipped a large segment of it away in the last 10 years to China, after having shipped a larger segment away in the 1980 decade to the Pacific Rim. Not only did the US promote its financial sector, but it denigrated the industrial sector as dirty. By removing a significant portion of the nation's capacity to generate legitimate added value income, the USEconomy was left vulnerable to debt overload and insolvency. The US Ship of State was hoisted on its own petard. For those ignorant of naval terminology, that means the US killed itself in a great display of cannon backfire in recoil. The QE2 initiative will be disastrous from many angles, certain to push the nation into an Inflationary Depression, from the current chronic Deep Recession.
MARGIN HIKE AS FINAL LIMP WEAPON
Increases to the silver margin requirement in futures contracts should be viewed as the final act of desperation. It is a device to control price within the paper silver arena. However, in a grand backfire, a higher margin produces a lower price for the physical buyers, who eagerly step up to place and fill orders. The margin maintenance hike on November 9th was six times greater for silver than for gold. The Big Four US banks are caught in an historically unprecedented short squeeze, bleeding $billions. Tuesday November 9th saw a powerful gold & silver price downdraft. The COMEX raised the silver margin requirement in a bland attempt to slow a raging bull market amidst a broken global monetary system. One week later they raised the margin again for both monetary metals. The price downdraft continued. But some calmer winds in Europe enabled precious metals prices to recover. Silver has snapped back much more than gold.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised the margin requirements for silver on November 9th. It was highly motivated. They wanted to prevent a blowout upside move in silver past $30 before Christmas, and to relieve some of the pain to the Big Four US banks. Unlike gold & silver, no margin hikes were doled out for soybeans, corn, sugar, or cotton despite their concurrent price gains. The message is clear, that desperation has set in relative to precious metals, as conditions are breaking down badly. The CME sent out a memo raising the margin maintenance requirements for silver futures by up to 29%, from $5000 to $6500 per contract. Initial positions have a slightly higher margin. It is their right, being the market maker. Let not their fast disappearing silver inventory deter their path. Less than two weeks later, the CME raised the silver margin maintenance requirement another 11.5% to $7250 in a sign of desperation. They also raised the gold margin, but only by 6% from $4251 to $4500 in a symbolic gesture. The CME motive is less about risk mitigation concerns and more driven by the desire to restrain the bull market movement. The investment world will regroup long before Christmas, like in the next week or two. Just when the European woes focused on Ireland, and a rescue aid package seemed in the offing, the silver price jumped upward by $2.00 on a single day, November 18th, a strong telegraph across the paper-physical silver table. The Powerz cannot halt the silver juggernaut, which will see $30/oz by January. If a double hike in the silver margin is the best they have, then they are truly whistling in the grave yard.
The demand for gold is global, diverse, and motivated by the gradual disintegration of the monetary system. Sovereign bonds that support the major currencies are in deep trouble the world over. The consensus actions toward Quantitative Easing, also known as hyper monetary inflation, have boosted demand for gold & silver monumentally in a natural offset. Dozens of nations and billions of people around the world are slowly awakening to the grand deception of money itself and the crumbly foundation that make up fiat currencies. They are losing money in supposedly safe government bonds, a trend without precedent. Most of Southern European nations will declare debt default within two years. Foreign central banks are attempting to diversify their oversized US$-based reserves without causing a run on the USDollar. Gold is gradually being seen as part of the solution, at least in private wealth preservation. Gold is the new reserve safe haven asset, since it is true money.
Important changes have come to the precious metals market. Silver has taken a leadership role. It has broken out in Europe to new highs. Its snapback was impressive after the weak-kneed COMEX hike in margin requirements. Silver is no longer only seen as just an industrial metal, a commodity, but rather as a safe haven alternative, a monetary brother to gold. The European Union bond fracture has wrought great damage to the structural foundation of the global monetary system. It is exposed as having a debt backbone, a paper spine fashioned of weakness, vulnerable to central bank abuse. Money is fleeing the EU Govt bonds, and fleeing even to some extent the USTreasurys. Horrible publicity has befallen the Big Four US banks with class action lawsuits at a time when Asian buyers have targeted the silver market. The Asians of unidentified origin (probably China) have descended with waves of layered orders, exploiting the discount offered from the paper impact after the margin hikes by COMEX officials. Recall that the US & China are locked in a trade war. The louder the USGovt accuses China of currency manipulation, the more they bid up Gold & Silver on the quiet. The strongest months of the year for Gold & Silver are December and January. The margin hike seemed designed to interrupt momentum. It only delayed the next powerful upward thrusts in price.
TITANIC BATTLE OVER PHYSICAL METAL
The nature of the Gold & Silver markets is two-headed. The price discovery aspect is driven by the paper futures contracts. Intended as devices to aid in pricing, to protect from drawn out periods under which business is conducted with commitments made, the paper futures arena turned into a monster two decades ago. The paper tail has led the metal dog, a backwards condition. Some important developments have taken place in recent weeks and months. Secure allocated account holders at both the COMEX and LBMA have forced the situation, demanding physical delivery of futures contracts. They openly cite their distrust, as suspicion is aroused of improper lease of allocated accounts. Huge delivery demands have come from Chinese and Arab investors. The remarkable new wrinkle is that silver paper price ambushes have led to strong silver physical purchases. Stories abound of an Asian assault on the silver market underway. Interviews granted by those with direct information have appeared on reliable websites. The skirmishes result in backfires to the paper market mavens, as they offer repeated discounts to the Asian physical buyers, who grab at the discounts with layered orders, as reported. Therefore, the actions by the paper mavens works to accelerate their own destruction. Investors should hope for occasional ambushes, so that the physical side can reload and obtain more physical metal at lower prices. Also, with occasional bouts of consolidation, the price advances are more stable. A very bizarre pathogenesis of the silver paper market is evident, hidden from view.
The London contact source has shared details to the inner workings of the Asian silver market assault on New York and London with an update. The Asian buyers have been squeezing the shorts in the silver market, causing great pain as the silver price has risen 50% since late summer. After the drop in price from a brief touch of $29 down to the low $25's, the physical market has responded with strong demand. Keep in mind that the paper silver market is the opposite, a key point. The bizarre anomalous paper market results in more selling when the price drops, the opposite to normal. The ambush catches the leveraged players off guard, forcing paper position sales in sudden liquidations. So a collision is in progress. The paper arena cannot produce enough silver after the raids push down the paper price in order to relieve their tenuous short condition. By pushing down the paper price, they must bring to the table the discounted silver at the lower price, in physical deliveries. The paper market is playing directly into the hands of the physical participants who want to drain the exchanges of their bullion metal. The credibility of the London source was enhanced by the quick jump above $26 as he predicted earlier in interviews. He described lines being crossed between the paper and physical orders, stops, covers, and delivery demands. Details are provided in the November Hat Trick Letter. Great intrepid work by King World News for developing the valuable source.
A staggering rise in physical demand is noted from Chinese & Indian buyers. Physical demand growth more than offsets the miner de-hedging, a process almost wound down fully. Investment demand globally is skyrocketing. According to the World Gold Council, global demand for gold bars climbed by over 30% between 2Q2009 and the second quarter this year. De-regulation in China might permit much broader gold ownership. That would unleash huge demand and pressure the Anglo bankers. Chinese demand has been strong for years, soon to reach a higher gear. With domestic mine output not expected to grow much next year, China will tap the global market, pushing up the gold price. New rules in China have already enabled tremendous increases in private gold demand, whose volume surpasses and overwhelms European central bank sales. The Chinese gold demand in 2010 will be a mammoth consensus estimated 500 tonnes. It will rise by as much as 20% in the year 2011, enough to surpass India as the top consumer in the next three years. Demand is forecasted to rise to around 600 tonnes in 2011, according to a Reuters survey of five analysts. Recent Chinese Govt restrictions imposed on property investment and speculation in other markets have resulted in more money going into gold and jewelry, which seems a calculated policy by the crafty government officials in Beijing. Gold will not burn their citizens in a bubble bust. Jewelry demand has risen by an average of 7% annually in steady fashion.
Investment demand for gold in China has surged by 60% in 2009 to 150 tonnes. On an annualized basis, China is on course to import 118 tonnes of gold through Hong Kong. Domestic gold mine output is expected to be flat inside China for 2011, the first time in years. Couple strong demand and flat output, and big net import of gold bullion will result. The Peoples Bank of China announced in August a relaxation of gold rules, a prelude to broader reform of financial markets pertaining to bonds and currencies. Banks would be permitted to export and import more gold in a program to drive the development of their market in the precious metal. Regard this as a direct assault on the COMEX in New York and LBMA in London, since huge physical gold demand will ramp up to a staggering high level. The PBOC wants to draw gold tonnage into their country without disrupting market equilibrium unduly, as it diversifies more of its burgeoning $2.6 trillion in FOREX reserves.
STATE VERSUS FEDERAL BATTLE
A great battle is being waged, but not presented in the light preferred by the Jackass. Witness the Tenth Amendment battle by the states versus the USGovt on the federal front. The battle has myriad microcosms in the mortgage court decisions made against the big Wall Street banks. So far the decisions favor the people, but the USCongress is busy preparing an unconstitutional bill to permit interstate contracts and possibly to whitewash any mortgage contract fraud. Bank lobby funds flow briskly to the craftsmen of the legislation. If challenged, such a bill might not withstand a constitutional battle. Sheeple justice versus mega-banks could reveal a quintessential states rights battle versus the federal govt controlled by the banking syndicate. Local judges are taking action against obvious criminal and predatory behavior by the big US banks. Some Florida homeowners were foreclosed by the big banks when no home loan was active in force. The Robo-Signers have captured much attention in document forgery. People who challenge are often winning their homes free & clear. Fraudulent attempts to foreclose and seize homes are being interrupted by those who challenge, and demand to prove property title. Legal precedents are set. Banks are worried. Regard the battle as an extension of the Tenth Amendment challenge, with proxy brigades doing battle. The big US banks represent the federal authority when a certain lens is applied.
The struggle in my view reveals a bigger macrocosm, where the states are pitted against the federal government. The proxy warriors for the states are local courts, where mortgage jurisdiction lies. The proxy warriors for the USGovt are the big Wall Street banks, whose syndicate has taken control of the national government bodies in their financial ministries. The states are fighting and winning the battle on home property challenges. Recall that in separate movements, 20 states have invoked the Tenth Amendment in a struggle to wrest back control from the New York and WashingtonDC syndicate. Their turf struggle has been over taxation, waged war, national security directives, border immigration, even threats of pandemic. Witness numerous local battles, erupting conflicts that serve as substitutes for state revolt against the encroaching federal apparataus. The legal structure favors the states. Watch the movements in reaction in counter-attack. What comes next might be Fascist Business Model corrupt extensions. The November Hat Trick Letter includes a review of some legal cases and their implications, which seem to be centered in metropolitan New York City. Some confusion might come from different decisions in different jurisdictions that lack consistency across the 50 states. That lack of uniformity might work to the advantage of upholding state rights, since the nation has always favored individuality of the states, a strength from diversity. Either way, a gigantic hairball is building within the system pipelines at a time when the majority of states are ruptured with huge budget shortfalls and pension shortfalls. They point a finger to the Wall Street corner where the housing & mortgage bust rendered damage. They point a finger to the USGovt colossus where the bloat exists, the deficits have expanded, and the control is centered.
By the way, notice how Bank of America quietly is approaching the funeral parlor. Word from my sources tell of Wall Street buying heavily the Credit Default Swap contracts for Irish and Portuguese Govt debt, in order to lift the bond yields enough to create a renewed crisis. That accomplishes two goals. EU financial distress creates some selling pressure for the Euro currency, thus supporting the USDollar. But a buoyed buck did not soften the gold price!! Sabotage of PIIGS sovereign debt is the order of the day so as to force the situation in Europe, which is stuck. The US bankers sense the need for contagion and crisis to befall Europe once more. Ruinous monetary policy is being exported from US locations. In the recent spring months, the USDollar was given a relative lift from Greek financial woes. This time, the effect will not be the same. Perhaps they can engineer an eerie calm in the FOREX currency market. The USDollar image and condition are so damaged and crippled, that the funds in flight will find Gold & Silver in heavy volumes. But the more hidden motive is to provide effective diversion from Bank of America. It is in a death spiral that requires almost daily cash infusions. As one source put it, "The wires for funds transfers at the Federal Reserve are burning from daily rescues of BOA." Witness the demise of Bank of America, again. Its own 200-day moving average serves as a ceiling on a dark pathway leading to the cemetery. Its managed death decline has come without news items. The mortgage mess is their curse.
WORKABLE SOLUTION FAR TOO LATE
The solution to the USEconomy and financial structure is long past available with the removal of the USTreasury gold. Here is a solution that could have worked. QE2 is the antithesis of a solution, one certain to cause great damage. Collateral, industry, and smaller government are the cornerstones to a solution. The $500 billion in gold collateral leased in the 1990 decade by Wall Street would be useful nowadays. People grope for bonafide solutions. Try this: Multiply the gold price 7-fold to obtain a hefty realistic $10,000 price level, sufficient to provide $3.5 trillion for US banking system collateral. Presto, some stability for the USDollar vis-a-vis the USGovt debt. Then the task shifts to reducing the USGovt deficit by means of terminating the endless war based upon dubious motives, ending Medicare largesse, cutting entitlements from pensions, eliminating several worthless agencies (like Energy and Homeland Security), and offering major incentives for the return of US manufacturing industry to US shores. The defense budget must be cut by 50%, and be declared no longer sacred. But the opportunity is long gone, since the USTreasury of gold was leased and sold for a few $trillion in private Wall Street gains. The usual suspects are deemed national heros.
These steps could have constructed the foundation for recovery, with $300 to $600 billion in budget cuts. Painful but progress. In two years, the deficit could have been tremendously reduced. That math works for me, but it is too late really. The nation repeatedly kicked the can down the road, the road that leads to the Third World. The opportunity for solution begins with a placement of gold collateral for both currency and debt, and a basis of industry for legitimate income. Both are absent, due to wretched leadership and profound corruption, as debt suffocates the system. Almost all attempts toward remedy mask the true motive at work, the preservation of power. The remedies turn out to be deceptive, adding $trillions to the clean-up bill without results. The squander of new money and the dissipation of asset bubbles are the essence of the Gold bull, which will take it well past $2000 in the coming two years, and much higher. The policy is not about solution, but rather power over money. Hyper-inflation, economic deterioration, and USTreasury default lie directly ahead, just a matter of time. Gold is the personal lifeboat, whose silver oars row to safety.Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com . For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Nick Brooks discusses gold demand with Mineweb's Geoff Candy.........listen here
Author: Dorothy Kosich, mineweb.com
Posted: Thursday , 25 Nov 2010
The Silver Institute noted Wednesday the U.S. American Eagle Silver Bullion coin program has already posed another record year.
As of Wednesday, Nov 24th, the U.S. Mint reported 32,505,000 silver bullion coins had been sold, well over last year's total of 28,766,500 silver bullion coins. Sales thus far in November are reported at 3,875,000 coins, up from 2,586,500 bullion coins sold during the entire month of November 2009.
"Should the current pace continue, sales will surpass 35 million coins by year's end," the Institute said.
U.S. Mint sales of American Eagle Silver Bullion coins have increased by 223% over the past five year, the Institute noted.....read on
Cook: For the past ten years you have been claiming that silver was the best thing people could own. How do you feel now with silver around $25 an ounce?
Butler: I have a sense of relief that I could not possibly have hurt anyone who followed my advice. I also feel intellectually vindicated about the way things are turning out. Lastly, I feel amazed how good silver still looks for further gains.
Cook: How high could it climb?
Butler: Real high, but by now you should know I shy away from specific price targets.
Read interview in full
By Peter Foster in Beijing 8:00AM GMT 24 Nov 2010
A US aircraft carrier is to deploy to the Yellow Sea off the coast of South Korea after the two countries agreed to conduct further war games in a show force against North Korea.
The decision to send the nuclear-powered USS Washington comes less than 24 hours after North Korea shelled a South Korean island, killing two marines and attracting a wave of international condemnation for what the White House described as an “outrageous act” of provocation.......read on
China and Russia have decided to renounce the US dollar and resort to using their own currencies for bilateral trade, Premier Wen Jiabao and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced late on Tuesday in St. Petersburg.
Chinese experts said the move reflected closer relations between Beijing and Moscow and is not aimed at challenging the dollar, but to protect their domestic economies.
"About trade settlement, we have decided to use our own currencies," Putin said at a joint news conference with Wen in St. Petersburg.......read on
Ireland’s government said it will cut spending by about 20 percent and raise taxes over the next four years as talks on a bailout of the country near conclusion.
Welfare cuts of 2.8 billion euros ($3.8 billion) and income tax increases of 1.9 billion euros are among the steps planned to narrow the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product by the end of 2014. The shortfall will be 12 percent of GDP this year, or 32 percent including a banking rescue.
Prime Minister Brian Cowen is racing to conclude talks with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on an 85 billion-euro aid package as his governing coalition crumbles. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said yesterday Ireland needs to pass next year’s budget “sooner rather than later” as concerns mount the fiscal crisis may spread to other euro nations such as Portugal....read on
The European Central Bank may be forced to delay its exit from emergency measures again as the region’s sovereign debt crisis escalates.
Investors are dumping Spanish and Portuguese bonds on concern they will have to follow Ireland and Greece in asking for European Union bailouts, making it more difficult for the ECB to proceed with its withdrawal of liquidity support for banks. Some economists now doubt the ECB will be able to signal a move back to limited auctions of three-month loans, which they regard as the next likely step in the bank’s exit, when policy makers meet next week in Frankfurt......read on
23 November 2010
A plan hatched by ex-footballer Eric Cantona for a mass run on the banks could cause a financial "crisis", the British Bankers' Association has admitted.
The UK trade body warned that the direct action revolution promoted by the French former Manchester United striker risks a new Northern Rock "if enough people" withdraw their savings.
"I don't understand what benefit there would be in trying to crash the banking system," a BBA spokeswoman said.
"You would very quickly get into a Northern Rock situation if everybody wanted their money at once. It wouldn't take very long before you get queues and then you would get camera crews.
"Once something looks like a crisis it becomes a crisis.
"One of the reasons the Northern Rock situation escalated so quickly was there was a perception that everybody wanted to get their money out, and that made more people want to get their money out."
An online viral sensation, Cantona's comments last week have drawn a huge response.
The ex-footballer turned actor said that instead of taking to the streets, the public should withdraw their cash en masse next month to express their frustration at the effects of the financial crisis.......read on
The endgame of capitalism is a uniquely different environment where investors find themselves faced with increasingly dangerous options. In the endgame, proven strategies are improvident, buying and holding becomes a time bomb and speculators are favored over investors because of excessive liquidity and volatility.
e Capitalism, a system of credit and debt that produced 300 years of growth is now dying. The bankers’ debt-based money has created such levels of debt that even 0 % credit can no longer induce growth. In the endgame, the problem is not the lack of credit—it’s the excessive amount of debt.
Bullets In The Back: How Boomers and Retirees Will Become Bailout, Stimulus and Currency War Casualties
Currency wars have their victims, much like military wars. What differs is who the victims are and what the casualty rate is. In a military war, the casualties are usually under age 25. Even in a deadly campaign, most soldiers are not victims because they are in support capacities.
The age of the casualties in a currency war is upside down compared to military war, because the worst of the damage is inflicted on those above age 50. Moreover, it is not just a few, but almost everyone who is on the front lines, and thus almost all become a casualty.
The latest financial headlines may seem arcane, with a vocabulary that is difficult to grasp, but the bottom line is unavoidable - the United States government and the Federal Reserve, in a belated defense of the fundamentals of the US economy, have effectively declared their intention to destroy the life savings of older Americans and devastate their future standard of living. It is the necessary "collateral damage" and all.
That may seem to be a wild assertion, but unfortunately, this financial devastation is the obvious implication of the Federal government's choice of strategy in attacking the overvalued US dollar, as this article will illustrate. We will connect three basic dots - and show where and how the bullets will be hitting.
The major events may be beyond our individual control, but the degree of devastation and the implications for our personal lifestyles is very much under our personal control. It is economic ignorance that will be inflicting more casualties in this war than any other factor, and thus our best personal defense is education.......read on
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Portuguese rail, air and other services have ground to a halt as workers strike over the Socialist government's planned cuts to ease the debt crisis.
Rail services were paralysed from the north to the south, with nearly 80% of trains not running, and the national airline TAP cancelled most flights.....read on
Now we are in 2010 and the world's largest holders of proven oil and gas reserves (Russia) are trading with the world's second largest oil and gas consumer (China) with both rejecting the US Empire's debased currency as the means of exchange. I would say this is the thin edge of the wedge but this is more the sledgehammer than the wedge - the US$ has just been shot in the head.
From the China Daily:
SHANGHAI - China started allowing the yuan to trade against the Russian rouble in the interbank market from Monday as policymakers promote the currency's use in global trade and finance.
The move will help "facilitate bilateral trade between China and Russia and help develop yuan trade settlements," according to a statement published on the website of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS), a subsidiary of the People's Bank of China.
The central bank calculates the daily reference rate by taking an average of quotes from commercial banks designated to act as market makers, the statement said.
"The pace of internationalizing the yuan is accelerating," said Zhao Qingming, a senior analyst in Beijing at China Construction Bank Corp, the country's second-largest lender.
"The direct trading between the yuan and the rouble will help expand trade settlements in the two currencies."
China is allowing greater use of its currency for cross-border transactions to reduce reliance on the US dollar, after Premier Wen Jiabao said in March he was "worried" about holdings of assets denominated in the greenback. Purchases of US currency to contain yuan gains contributed to a $194 billion increase in the nation's foreign-exchange reserves in the third quarter, boosting the total to a record $2.65 trillion......read on
US President Barack Obama has strongly condemned North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong island in South Korea and said the US would defend South Korea.
Mr Obama told ABC News that North Korea was "a serious and ongoing threat that needs to be dealt with".
The attack near a disputed sea border was also denounced by Russia, Japan and the European Union.
South Korea returned fire and threatened missile strikes if there were "further provocations".....read on
BIG PICTURE - Lets face it, governments always try to 'kick the can down the road'. Rather than deal with economic issues in the here and now, they prefer to postpone the pain. Unfortunately, in their attempt to avoid painful economic recessions, the policymakers sacrifice the purchasing power of their currencies and they end up creating even bigger troubles for the future.
Look. The 'Great Recession' in the developed world was brought about by excessive debt and consumption. In the boom years, millions of Americans borrowed copious amounts of money to buy real-estate; they used their homes as a source of funding (home equity withdrawals) and spent way beyond their means. In those heady days, everyone was convinced that real-estate prices could not decline on a country wide basis. Unsurprisingly, the bankers gladly supported this misconception by providing cheap fuel to the raging speculative fire. The end result was that unworthy debtors were able to purchase several properties and real-estate prices appreciated considerably.....read on
Most recently, Geithner stated, "It is very important for people to understand that the United States of America and no country around the world can devalue their way to prosperity, to (be) competitive" and "It is not a viable strategy and we will not engage in it." His ability to voice these words with a straight face, admittedly, was most impressive yet the fact that the Federal Reserve has been employing this strategy for the past 97 years with the American people remaining oblivious, take a little away from his performance. Apparently Americans believe professional wrestling is the real deal also. Yet Geithner has every reason to remain optimistic because if the American people ever wise up Geithner's performance before Chinese college students should still give him hope. When Geithner proclaimed in a speech to Chinese university students that the US believes in a strong dollar policy they literally laughed him off the stage which bodes well for Geithner's possibilities as a comedic actor. He could easily be the next Steve Martin or John Candy. Maybe even Abbott & Costello as Bernanke has shown outstanding ability as a straight man......read on
21 November 2010
In contrast, the Fed's new QE 2 announcement comes at a time when the consensus is that the US economy is recovering (I don't buy it, but most analysts/ commentators do) and other central banks have publicly declared they won't be engaging in additional easing (the ECB and UK) or are outright tightening credit and raising interest rates (China and Australia)........read on
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Martin Armstrong's latest musings on the Debit Crisis in Europe and the US..........read here
North Korea has launched an artillery barrage on a South Korean island in one of the most serious clashes since the end of the Korean War
North Korea has launched an artillery barrage on a South Korean island in one of the most serious clashes since the end of the Korean War nearly 60 years ago.
One South Korean soldier has died, while more than a dozen others have been wounded and a number of houses caught fire.
Media reports say about 50 North Korean artillery shells slammed into the island of Yeonpyeong, about 3km south of the Yellow Sea border and 120km west of Seoul.
Residents were forced to flee as the shells hit homes and set them ablaze.
South Korea's military has confirmed one marine was killed and at least 14 others were wounded in the barrage, four seriously.
Defence minister Kim Tae-Young says the South fired 80 shots in response during an exchange that lasted for about an hour.
Seoul has raised its alert to the highest level and the security cabinet is meeting in an underground bunker.
South Korean F-16 fighter planes have also been scrambled to the island.....read on
In the first full week of the latest iteration of post-QE2 POMO, which was supposed to see a dramatic ramp in stocks, the only thing we have seen is the biggest insider buying to selling imbalance since the data has been tracked.
Overall, selling by S&P500 insiders was 8,279.5x times greater than buying (per Bloomberg). There were 5 insider buys for a total of $150,673, and 117 sales for a total of $1,247,500,249. There is no point to even discuss what this data point indicates.....read on
Ireland’s bid for financial aid yesterday prompted Prime Minister Brian Cowen to call elections after support for his government unraveled.
Cowen made the announcement late today hours after the Green Party said it would pull out of his coalition. He said the vote will come early next year after passage of a 2011 budget.
The euro fell and Irish bonds pared their advance after Moody’s Investors Service said a “ multi-notch” downgrade in Ireland’s Aa2 credit rating was “most likely” because the aid would increase the country’s debt burden.......read on
Standing near his 12-table noodle shop on Beijing’s Yonghegong Avenue, owner Liu Heliang says meat and vegetable prices have climbed 10 per cent in a year and staff wages are up 40 per cent.
“I’m struggling to make ends meet with costs going up like this,” said Liu, a native of Sichuan province who pays his workers as much as 1,800 yuan ($274) a month, or 88 per cent more than the Beijing minimum wage, to serve up a staple Chinese meal. “Raising prices is the only way out,” he said, predicting he won’t be able to hold out beyond two months......read on
The periodic table lists 118 chemical elements differentiate. And yet, for thousands of years, humans have really, really liked one of them in particular: gold. And yet, for thou sands of years, humans have really, really liked one of Them in Particular: gold. Gold has been used as money for millennia, and its price has been going through the roof. Gold Has Been Used as money for millennia, and its price Has Been going through the roof.
Why gold? Why gold? Why not osmium, lithium, or ruthenium? Why not osmium, lithium, or ruthenium?
We went to an expert to find out: Sanat Kumar, a chemical engineer at Columbia University. We went to an expert to find out: Sanat Kumar, a chemical engineer at Columbia University. We asked him to take the periodic table, and start eliminating anything that wouldn't work as money. We asked him to take the periodic table, and start anything Eliminating That Would not work as money......read on
British banks lost billions of pounds in value yesterday after the Irish bail-out was thrown into jeopardy over concerns that the country's government might collapse before a rescue deal can be agreed.
The share prices of Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds fell sharply as stock markets took fright at the political chaos engulfing Dublin.
It had been hoped that the £70 billion bail-out agreed between Ireland, the European Union and International Monetary Fund would ease investors' fears over the eurozone economies.
But within hours of the Irish government admitting it needed help, the Green party – on whom Prime Minister Brian Cowen relies for support – called for a general election by the end of January.The suggestion prompted a fall in the value of the London stock exchange and the euro and a rise in the cost of borrowing for both the Irish and Spanish governments. The head of the eurozone warned that "crazy" market speculators could turn on Portugal and Spain next.....read on
The Portuguese seemed baffled - and pained - that investors should link their country in any way with Greece or Ireland. I am afraid they must come to terms very soon with some unpleasant facts.
So must Europe’s leaders, who comfort themselves that Greece is a special case because it cheated, and that Ireland is a special case because it allowed its "Anglo-Saxon" banks to go berserk. They have yet to acknowledge the deeper truth that monetary union has insidiously destabilised much of Europe and trapped a ring of largely innocent countries in depression.......read on
Gold trading legend Jim Sinclair thinks the gold market is right in front of a major move and current weakness is like that seen in late 1979 before the gold price shot higher.
What makes Mr Sinclair so exceptional is his long-term forecasting record. He predicted gold would hit $1,650 in February 2011 some eight years ago when gold was $300 an ounce. Nobody else has come close for forecasting accuracy.......read on
Gold’s 23 percent surge this year to a record is proving no deterrent to George Soros, John Paulson and Paul Touradji, whose investments signal more gains for the longest winning streak in at least nine decades.Securities and Exchange Commission filings this month by Soros Fund Management LLC, Paulson & Co. and Touradji Capital Management LP listed investments in gold as their biggest holdings. Exchange-traded products own 2,088 metric tons, equal to nine years of U.S. mine supply, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Precious metals will produce the best commodity returns in the next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Nov. 9 report.....read on
Chris Martenson interviews silver guru Ted Butler.....listen to the interview here
Ted Butler is one of the pre-eminent commentators on the silver market. In addition to his decades following the metal, he's spent years raising suspicions about silver’s suppression by a few large banks taking on egregiously large short positions. The current CFTC action is a direct result of Ted’s activism.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Gold Market veteran George Gero discusses gold, silver, cooper and the PGMs.
Notice how the MSM eye candy is not allowed to discuss the silver price action, even though George temps them with the fact that silver has significantly out performed gold this year.........watch here